Alumina trading was active, and SHFE aluminum saw three consecutive days of gains [SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Comment]

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis

SMM News on June 13:

Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,360 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,510 yuan/mt, a low of 20,345 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,440 yuan/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume was 186,000 lots, and open interest was 211,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: This week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year. Spot alumina supply is relatively looser compared to the previous period. This week, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and alumina spot prices are expected to pull back. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,890 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,943 yuan/mt, a low of 2,833 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,852 yuan/mt, down 1.38%. Trading volume was 665,000 lots, and open interest was 298,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: Last week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 600,000 mt/year MoM to 87.27 million mt/year. It is understood that some imported alumina arrived at Chinese ports. Supply recovered while demand did not change significantly. Last week, the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 19,000 mt to 2.63 million mt. As of June 11, the loss margin of imported alumina prices widened, and the import window remained closed. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals still maintain a relatively loose pattern, and alumina spot prices are expected to be in the doldrums. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises and the transportation of previously imported alumina.

Today, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract opened at 19,455 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,520 yuan/mt, a low of 19,330 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,430 yuan/mt, up 0.03%. Trading volume was 11,000 lots, and open interest was 9,000 lots.

SMM Commentary: On Thursday, the SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,650 yuan/mt. The domestic SMM ADC12 price increased by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 19,900-20,100 yuan/mt. On the cost side, aluminum scrap prices closely followed the rise in aluminum prices during the week, leading to a continuous increase in the production costs of secondary aluminum enterprises and intensifying pressure on the cost side. However, the downstream consumer market performed sluggishly, with insufficient purchasing enthusiasm. In the early stage of futures listing, the market sentiment was cautious, with most participants still in the stage of waiting for trading opportunities. Driven by the rapid rise in the cost side, the market quotes for ADC12 generally increased by 100 yuan/mt yesterday. However, the continuous weakness of end-use demand still significantly suppressed the upside room for ADC12 prices. It is expected that the price of ADC12 will mainly undergo narrow adjustments in the short term, and its discount pattern against A00 will continue.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not replace their independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]